Investors seek to profit from Russia as Trump pursues rapprochement

Investors apply to Russian bonds and rubles to the ruble of sanctions to send a wave of the rapprochement of Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin in Russia’s economy.

Hedge funds and brokers have left the West, but those who believe that they can collect sharply if the US president is motionless Russia’s war against UkraineInvestors and traders say.

Is rubric This year, almost a third of the dollar has increased the end of the three-year conflict. But investors say that the market looks out of it in a broader return of sanctions.

“A few [Trump’s] Rhetoric about Russia is unavailable, and this is something you have to fact, but we are talking about the elimination of sanctions, “said Paul McNooms at the GAM.

Although it is very difficult to bet on Russia’s assets directly, some are hunting for bonds of Russian companies, which are almost considered invading almost 2022, but now the internal estimates of some investors.

“There is definitely some excitement in the community of obsolete fund,” said Roger Mark, who is the income income analyst nineteenth. However, the ruble is still sold out of Russia, and the bonds mainly limit foreign institutional investors to sanctions and their internal rules.

Since 2022, sanctions are banned by trade Russian sovereign debtAnd many of the corporate issuers affected by the country cannot find banks or mediators to make payments to creditors. Meanwhile, trade directly with the trade rubles is very difficult due to the sanctions of Russian lenders and the internal rules of Western banks.

The volume of international trade in Russian currency is a barely $ 50 million per week, compared to billions of dollars, which changed their hands.

The traders used Kazakhstan’s Tangj as a proxy of the RUBL, due to the country’s economic ties with Russia, which reach the volume of $ 100 million a week. This year, Tenge gathered about 5% against the dollar.

But these transactions are hard to do in size.

Ninzuni Mark said. “You are talking about the liquidity of Kazakhstan [in rouble trading] – So it’s small. It is a function of sanctions, and they are controlling Russian capital. “

Some banks and brokers offer further rubric movement work solved in dollars, not Russian currency so that investors avoid direct influence of the country. These so-called non-delivered attackers (NDF) are often used to trade currencies that are difficult to source outside their homeland, such as Nigeria or Egypt.

Luis Costa, global head of the market strategy strategy in Kyti, said: “Western banks are clearly related to sanctions. A non-delivered forward is a tool where you don’t have to have a currency or any Russian active. “

Last month, the bank offered a long ruble using the tool, as the United States began negotiations with Russia.

“Of course, there has been more interest in NDFs recently, and banks have begun to quote more actively,” said the Armenet-seller markets.

“It seems you are when you want to trade [rouble NDFs] And they will offer you levels and dates, “said Gam McNamara. Hotspent[But] It is very difficult to do without the Russian institutions without a node. “

The international markets of Russian assets evaporated after the invasion of Ukraine, as the sanctions severed Russian banks from the global financial sanitary ware, and the country suffered a large flight.

The Central Bank of Russia raised interest rates, as import costs have increased, and lack of labor is installed, in particular, as the Kremlin, an emergency plan of hostilities began.

The ruble trade bets that this dynamics will reverse, particularly if the Russians escaped from the country to escape the savings they are returning to Georgia, Armenia and other related countries.

Citi Costa said: “It allows global investors to express an opinion on Russia’s capital flows. It is here in the spotlight. The potential for improving capital flows is Russia. “

Trade still has huge risks, for example, when the United States tightens sanctions instead, if Moscow rejects the ceasefire. Even if sanctions are weakened, Russian investors who have stuck in the country can leave, while many cannot return to the nineteen Mark.

“If you are a Russian who left a system that has received more and more pressure, and you left because you were called to fight. A number of a number You are going to return to your city, resist the society’s ostacrism. “

The recent rise in the ruble has stimulated the assessment of Russian bonds, which turned in the portfolios of foreign investors after the invasion.

“At the moment, there is no much to buy, because those who have bonds generally do not want to sell them,” Nartov said. “But deals happen. There are more surveys from market participants asking about the consequences of eliminating sanctions, and the coupons will be paid. “

Sanctions and payments for “unscrupulous” countries mean that the debt of the Russian government’s own ruble remains outside Western investors. The total foreign affairs of the country’s bonds have decreased, and local banks have mainly met with the latest loan in Moscow.

“The direct impact of the Russian market will be limited due to the restrictions on the Central Bank of Russia from time to time. These investors are “must find a reliable partner of neutral jurisdiction for neutral jurisdiction to get their ticket to the Russian market.”